Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.330883 0.378453 0.430132 0.490404 0.558726 0.633731 0.722279
2025-08-17 0.243829 0.302790 0.371940 0.458878 0.565116 0.690572 0.849827
2025-08-24 0.190738 0.255425 0.336787 0.446306 0.589532 0.770105 1.014668
2025-08-31 0.151270 0.217476 0.306390 0.433943 0.611579 0.849463 1.191377
2025-09-07 0.127249 0.195478 0.292870 0.441072 0.659768 0.969277 1.438921
2025-09-14 0.101759 0.166608 0.264748 0.422730 0.669031 1.036285 1.622708
2025-09-21 0.084391 0.146716 0.246353 0.415400 0.692770 1.126819 1.853271
2025-09-28 0.070161 0.129155 0.228513 0.405683 0.710722 1.210197 2.083723
2025-10-05 0.062432 0.121161 0.224932 0.418611 0.767068 1.361647 2.443796
2025-10-12 0.053996 0.110304 0.214526 0.417801 0.799312 1.476499 2.756809
2025-10-19 0.047698 0.102299 0.207898 0.422593 0.841857 1.614072 3.126851
2025-10-26 0.042914 0.096396 0.204231 0.432245 0.894486 1.775899 3.560999
2025-11-02 0.035911 0.084793 0.187873 0.415203 0.894851 1.843882 3.835076
2025-11-09 0.029603 0.073462 0.170155 0.392471 0.880396 1.881495 4.055961
2025-11-16 0.025477 0.066284 0.160124 0.384547 0.895722 1.980891 4.415669
2025-11-23 0.021939 0.059785 0.150477 0.375852 0.908032 2.075680 4.778850
2025-11-30 0.019899 0.056622 0.148064 0.383534 0.958401 2.258666 5.356852
2025-12-07 0.016917 0.050354 0.137000 0.368504 0.953490 2.318764 5.669636
2025-12-14 0.014828 0.046069 0.130150 0.362787 0.970066 2.429814 6.113652
2025-12-21 0.012933 0.041920 0.122893 0.354749 0.979557 2.525320 6.533381
2025-12-28 0.012055 0.040595 0.123038 0.366481 1.041474 2.754891 7.306265
2026-01-04 0.010837 0.037951 0.119013 0.366027 1.071091 2.908242 7.909346
2026-01-11 0.009915 0.036055 0.116819 0.370435 1.114652 3.102632 8.641673